HSBC cuts the end-December USD/INR target to 52.00 from 57.00, as the government's recent reforms push helps dilute some caution. "The time has now come to be more constructive on the currency, especially in light of the Fed's latest QE and calming tail-risks in the euro-zone," says Paul Mackel, head of Asian FX at HSBC. Additional reforms are likely, which could quell concerns over a possible sovereign downgrade. If so, there is additional room for INR to strengthen. "The INR deserves to be on a better footing versus the USD," despite the implementation risks and further political obstacles that could still emerge. "For 2013, we expect some INR appreciation to persist. However, given the list of elections to be held locally and nationally, the progress of additional reforms could slow, putting some resistance against INR appreciation," Mackel says. As such, the USD/INR could trade around 49.00 by end-2013.
Relatively, HSBC prefers INR over IDR as it has some tactical room to recover vs Asian currencies.
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