New Zealand 3Q retail sales data further reinforce the likelihood that the NZ economy lost some momentum over 3Q, says First NZ Capital economist Chris Green in a note. "It appears that the pace of annual GDP growth of around the 2.5% year-on-year level observed over the first half of this year may have slowed over the third quarter to sub-2% year on year." Green adds that at this stage he is interpreting the data as a broad softening of economic data before activity builds momentum in 2013 on the back of the Christchurch earthquake rebuild. "However, were leading and partial activity indicators to continue to ease back, then the risks of a potentially more enduring and pronounced softening in our forecast NZ activity profile would clearly increase."
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